The Abilities of a Smaller Nation

Radley Balko trumpets this story of Vietnamese and Chinese relations like this:

You know, I’m kind of digging Vietnam’s pillars of foreign policy.

So, as a regular critic of US foreign policy, I wondered what could be Vietnam's approach to the world. From the story:

Vinh reconfirmed the three pillars of Vietnam’s defense policy: not joining in any military alliances or becoming a military ally of any country; not allowing any country to set up military bases in Vietnam; and not relying on one country to oppose another.

The funny thing is this reads more like "Vietnam's pillars of dealing with the United States and China." South East Asia is a bit of a fix right now. China is obviously on the rise, but the big, bad regional player is the United States. Has been for 50-60 years. The question that South East Asian nations now face is which regional player do you get behind? The aging, sometimes-helpful-always-brutish United States or the rising, possibly-helpful-probably-brutish China. Oddly enough, the relative helpfulness or brutishness of either nation will probably not matter too much. What will matter is the belief of the policymakers in these nations that they are safe. In other words, this is a matter of security, and virtually nothing else, for these nations.

Think about this story. Out of context, Vietnam's foreign policy pillars seem to be independent of any geopolitical factors. But when you see that graph embedded in a story about a meeting between top Vietnamese and Chinese officials, who both said they want to increase cooperation and support each other, you need to put on your geopolitical glasses see those pillars for what they are: support for China. Let's break down the pillars.

•  Pillar One: no military alliances with anyone. Translation: Vietnam will not be dragged into a violent conflict by any nation. Who really wants a military alliance with Vietnam and for what reason? China does for the purpose of increasing it's geopolitical power in its region. A nation or a group of nations for balancing against China. The United States for balancing against China. So, China benefits merely by Vietnam not having any military alliances.
• Pillar Two: no military bases for any other nation in Vietnam. Translation: Vietnam will not be any other nation's ground for projecting force or launching an attack. What nation really wants to use Vietnam for projecting force or launching an attack? China doesn't; it's right next door. Nobody else in the region wants to or can. That just leaves the United States.
• Pillar Three: Vietnam will not rely on a nation to oppose another nation. Translation: Vietnam won't ever oppose China because the only way we could is if the United States stood behind us.

These pillars are hardly a nation claiming its geopolitical independence. It's Vietnam bandwagonning (yes, it's a verb) with the rising power. Why is Vietnam doing this? For the same reason any smaller nation latches on to a strengthening one: it's safer. The abilities of of a smaller nation are extremely limited in this context, and living in blissful independence is not one of them. That leaves two games in town. With China Vietnam shares a border, the region, a history, and possibly complementary interests. With the United States Vietnam shares...? So China's power grows a little more in the region.